The Fourth Reich Vs. The Second Russian Empire, or Why Russia Will Never Be Taken to Europe
Map: from Lissabon to Wladiwostok
The chances that Russia will ever be accepted into a single political space with Western Europe are indeed very small. And for obvious reasons.
Let’s just figure out what a modern “small” united Europe is, and compare it with an alternative version of “Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok”.
Well, let’s do the math.
By “Little Europe” we mean the European Union, as well as the countries that are indisputably “tied” to it, such as Switzerland and Norway. Under “Greater Europe” there is the same plus Russia (with the same reservations).
Language situation in Little Europe
As you know, Europe is a “Romano-Germanic” world. This is quite evident even from the most superficial study of it. There are peoples of other origins, but they are relatively few. The largest of the “admixtures” are the Slavs, there are also Greeks, Finno-Ugrics, Balts…
So.
“The Germans”
We don’t need a particularly accurate calculation.
About 90 million people in the EU speak German: that’s more than 80 million people in Germany, about 8 million in Austria. German is the most widely spoken language in the European Union.
Germanic languages are also spoken in Sweden – 10 million, Denmark – about 5 million, the Netherlands – 17 million, Belgium – about 60% of the 11 million population, round up to 7 million, Dutch/Dutch is spoken.
And there are countries that are not formally integrated into the EU, but are in fact part of Little Europe as a cultural and political space. German is spoken by about 70% of the 8 million Swiss. Norway – another 5 million people.
In total, German – about 100 million, Germanic languages in general (English is not counting) – something like 140 million native speakers.
The population of the EU is about 450 million, the whole of Little Europe is about 500 million.
“Romance-speaking”
We count speakers of Romance languages.
The most widely spoken language is French. France – about 65 million, the remaining 40% of Belgians – rounded up to 4 million.
Italy – 60 million, Spain – 47 million, Portugal – 10 million, Romania – about 20 million.
Outside the EU, there are French, Italian and Romansh parts of Switzerland, about 3 million people.
In total, it turns out to be about 210 million people.
That is, in total, German- and Romance-speaking people make up about 350 million people, that is, more than 2/3 of the population of Little Europe.
Other
Slavs: Poles – 38 million, Czech Republic – 10. Slovakia – 5. Slovenia – 2. Croatia – 4. Bulgaria – 7.
If we add those who do not formally belong to the EU, they will be as follows: North Macedonia – 2 million, Serbia – about 7 million, Bosnia and Herzegovina – about 4 million.
In total, there are about 80 million Slavs. Taking into account the Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltics, a little more, but with our relative accuracy, there is no need to take into account such details.
The remaining ones are much smaller:
Greece – about 11 million, about 16 million – Finno-Ugric (10 million Hungary, 5.5 million Finland, <1 million Estonians in Estonia). Ireland – about 5 million, Latvia, Lithuania – it makes no sense to take them into account at all in such a rough calculation (as well as Luxembourg, Iceland, etc.). We can mention the Albanians: their total number is about 8 million, but in fact we count only 4, since the rest live in other countries and were taken into account when counting their population.
Of course, there is a significant number of immigrants in the EU. Muslim migrants number between 15 million and 20 million, and that number could double within a decade. There are also migrants from the post-Soviet space (mainly Ukraine and Moldova). But they are ethnolinguistically close to the traditional population of Little Europe, so their presence does not change the picture much.
Romano-Germanic equilibrium
At the same time, German is undoubtedly the dominant language in terms of prevalence in the modern “post-British” EU. Also, unlike English, most other Germanic languages are quite similar to it. The 100 million German-speaking people of Lesser Europe is more than two-thirds of the German-speaking population in general. That is, this language family is, so to speak, “centralized”: non-Germans among German-speakers have an incentive to learn German (and many understand it even without translation).
Of the Romance languages, French is the most widespread, but it does not have the same degree of dominance within the Romance language family as German does in the Germanic language. And it’s already markedly different from Spanish and Portuguese, to say the least. But at the same time, there are more Romance-speaking people than German-speaking ones. In addition, for historical reasons, French is somewhat more “prestigious” than German.
So, linguistically, there is a certain equilibrium between the leading ethno-linguistic groups.
Among the Slavic-speakers, the situation is partly intermediate. Poles make up about half of their number, but the West and South Slavic languages differ quite a bit. In any case, German puts a lot of pressure on the Slavic area: German alone is spoken by more people than all the Slavic languages in Lesser Europe combined.
Confessional Situation in Lesser Europe
It’s constantly changing. For the sake of simplicity, let’s agree that we are more interested in the cultural traditions associated with traditional confessions than in the formal affiliation to the confession itself, and even more so in the “churchiness”. National culture has always been closely welded to the confession that has dominated for centuries, and here formal secularization does not fundamentally change the situation.
The basic religious denominations in Europe are Catholicism and Protestantism, also with a slight addition of Orthodoxy (however, after the departure of Britain, the importance of Protestantism sharply decreased). There are also Muslims, but they are mostly scattered in various European countries, and they do not have a full-fledged religious center in Europe: Turkey is outside the EU, Albania is too insignificant.
Then it turns out that all Romance speakers, except Romanians, belong to conditional Catholics. Catholics are also part of the Germans: Austria and about half of Germany. Of the Slavs, only Bulgarians, Serbs, Montenegrins and Macedonians are not Catholics.
The rest, in addition to those mentioned, are Protestants. Then it turns out that 190 million Romance speakers (210 in total minus 20 million Romanians), 50 million Germans and Austrians, and 60 million Slavs (Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Croats, Slovenes) are Catholics. And about 10 million Hungarians and about 5 million Irish. And so does the Dutch-speaking part of the Belgian population. That’s about 320 million, almost two-thirds of the population of Little Europe.
The rest of the Germans, Finns and representatives of the Baltic peoples (except the Lithuanians) are Protestants. That’s about 90 million people.
Orthodox Christians – the remaining Slavs (about 20 million), Romanians (20 million), Greeks (11 million), there is a certain number of Orthodox among Albanians and migrants. Let’s say 55 million in total.
Muslims have already been mentioned: 15-20 million (the figures are inaccurate and growing quite rapidly), as well as Jews and representatives of non-traditional religious trends for Europe (Buddhism, etc.).
That is, Catholicism clearly dominates, surpassing, and by a strong margin, all other trends.
Greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok
Well, now let’s imagine that Russia is added to this celebration of life.
It is rather difficult to imagine Russia’s integration with the EU without Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova joining – if not de jure, then de facto – the same association. In general, some other post-Soviet countries as well, but for now let’s take the minimum option.
The actual population of this region is something like 200 million, and almost all of it consists of either native Russian speakers or knows it very well. The overwhelming majority are Orthodox, with a small number of Catholics and Uniates. About 15 million Muslims (in fact, probably more), a small number of Buddhists and Jews.
And what does Greater Europe, with a total population of about 700 million, look like now?
First of all, it turns out that the percentage of Russian-speakers in Greater Europe is one and a half times higher than that of German-speakers in Lesser Europe: two-sevenths against one-fifth (~29% and 20%, respectively). The number of Russian speakers obviously overlaps the total number of German and French speakers – now the number two and three languages, respectively.
The Slavic language family, which now has 280 million people, is clearly in first place, surpassing the Romance family (210 million). At the same time, the degree of its “centralization” is approximately the same as that of the Germans: more than two-thirds of Slavic-speakers speak Russian. This means that:
A) Slavic-speakers have a direct reason to learn Russian: you will be able to communicate with a very large number of people in a relatively simple way;
B) It also makes sense for the rest of us to learn Russian – it is more effective as a language of interethnic communication in terms of the ratio of “effort / result” (in terms of complexity, we are comparable to German and French, in terms of prevalence it surpasses them).
In terms of confessional composition, Orthodoxy is making a powerful breakthrough. If we proceed from about 175 million conditionally Orthodox Christians in Russia and neighboring countries, then their total number becomes about 225-230 million. Catholics (together with Uniates) become about 330 million. The number of Protestants does not change significantly.
This means that in Greater Europe, Catholicism, although it remains the largest confession, is losing its absolute dominance. The share of Catholics turns out to be less than half, and Orthodoxy comes in second place.
The community of Muslims is changing significantly. Now there are old and quite powerful Islamic cultural centers of the Volga region on the territory of Europe. In the Volga region, there are Muslims who fully share the rules and norms of urban culture, with which there are no problems similar to those for which recent immigrants to Europe are famous.
Within the framework of a common religious and cultural policy, it would be rational for the leadership of Greater Europe to invite teachers, partly Islamic clerics, from Russia to the rest of Europe in order to suppress extremism. In the current situation, it would certainly do so.
And also on the territory “from Lisbon to Vladivostok” there are traditional centers of Buddhism (and even Jewish autonomy). It also contributes to the normalization of the religious situation: all believers receive qualified “shepherds.”
Resume
If the current EU is the “Fourth Reich”, then the potential “Greater Europe” is the “Second Russian Empire”, and with much greater justification.
The level of ethnic, linguistic, and confessional dominance of Russia in Greater Europe is much greater than the level of Germany’s dominance in Lesser Europe. It will have some influence on Slavic-speakers, Orthodox Christians and Muslims. This is about half of the population of the entire association.
And this has not yet counted the economic influence: dominance in the energy sector, in the technological sphere (the atom, the rocket and space sector, military technology), and so on.
That is why it is very difficult to imagine that modern Europeans would agree to a close alliance with Russia. Unlike the United States, it is not located overseas. its domination may well lead over time to the actual civilizational disappearance of the former Europe. At the very least, the transformation of Western Europe into the periphery of Eastern Europe.
The Funniest Part
But you know what’s the funniest thing about it? The fact that for all this to happen, it is not at all necessary for the unification of the EU and Russia to take place on Russia’s terms.
Let’s say Russia is defeated in a war and is forcibly absorbed by Europe piece by piece. What will be the “Greater Europe” in this case? What’s changing?
The fact of the matter is that almost nothing will change!
All the same, the Russian language and the Slavic language family are in first place in terms of prevalence. All the same, Orthodoxy comes in second. All the same, Muslims are at least partially beginning to orient themselves towards the old Islamic cultural centers that are now internal to Greater Europe…
Nothing has changed. Russia is simply too big not to influence the intra-European “homeostasis” in any way.
But… Never say never. It is quite possible that one day the remnants of Old Europe will simply have no other choice.
But more on that later.
Footnotes:
* Moreover, even if Britain had remained part of Greater Europe, nothing would have fundamentally changed. The share of German-speakers and Protestants is slightly higher, but Slavic-speaking and Orthodox Christians still bypass them.
PS: Characteristically, we have chosen the option of unification that is not yet the most favorable for Russia. The simplest scenario is simply direct integration of the EU and the EAEU. Then not only all of the above, but also Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia are there. The importance of the Russian language is additionally increasing, the center of Islam is being drawn even more actively to the post-Soviet space…